Which one of the Clásico teams is in the ascendency? Which team’s season is suddenly crashing down before our eyes? The answer to this should be more straightforward than it is but it’s complicated.
Barcelona are clear favourites to win LaLiga with a seven-point lead. Real Madrid just celebrated a historic win at Anfield, coming back from two goals down to beat Liverpool 5-2 in the Champions League.
But Barcelona just crashed out of the Europa League, marking Xavi’s fourth elimination from Europe in 18 months at the club. They just lost to Almería for the first time ever and have given Real Madrid hope in a LaLiga title race that should be over.
‘It was the worst game of the year for us,’ Xavi said after the game. The lightest of murmurs about his suitability for the job can be heard around the Camp Nou now. Meanwhile, in Madrid, they drew with Atlético Madrid at the weekend and lost to Mallorca at the beginning of the month. They know Barcelona aren’t all that but still find themselves chasing their Clásico rivals in the league.
The good news for both sides is that regardless of what came before it, El Clásico offers fresh hope to generate good vibes around the club. The other edge of that same sword is that a loss can derail a season. Real Madrid and Barcelona play each other three times in the next month and those games will go a long way to decide their respective seasons.
This will be the 252nd Madrid vs Barcelona game ever played. Real Madrid have already clocked 100 victories in the fixture with Barcelona just behind on 98. There have been 52 draws. Los Blancos have won six of their last eight games against their Clásico rival.
This is a chance to put one foot in the final against either Osasuna or Athletic Bilbao, who play in the Spain’s other Copa del Rey semi-final.
For Barcelona, they travel to the Spanish capital without Pedri or Robert Lewandowski with both injured. Lewandowski is suffering from his first goal drought at Barcelona – drought being relative here as he has still scored three in the last eight (one of them a penalty against Manchester United) but even still, he will be missed.
Barcelona look like a different team without Pedri, who lack clarity and creativity in the final third without their young talisman. The loss of Lewandowski compounds that problem and Xavi will have to come up with a novel solution ahead of Thursday’s meeting. Sergio Busquets is back for the Blaugrana, which does give them options in midfield. Frenkie de Jong will likely get pushed further forward but it hasn’t been ideal team news in recent days for Xavi.
Real Madrid are missing David Alaba, who suffered a hamstring injury against Liverpool and Ferland Mendy, who is a longer term absentee. Nacho has been excellent in his stead when called upon all season and should replace the Austrian at left-back. Rodrygo suffered a muscle injury a week ago but might be back for the Clásico on Thursday night. Marco Asensio, who is fighting for a new contract at the club, has been in excellent form recently and could replace the Brazilian if he doesn’t make it back in time.
Previous Meeting
Barcelona 3-1 Real Madrid: 15 January 2023 (Spanish Super Cup)
The most recent meeting between these two sides came in the Spanish Super Cup final in Saudi Arabia. Barcelona bossed that one and took home Xavi’s first trophy with a 3-1 win. Prior to that one, in the league, Real Madrid won 3-1 even though Barcelona dominated large spells of that too. That’s the one, Madrid fans will tell you, that really mattered. Barcelona fans, if given a truth serum, would probably agree. Pedri and Lewandowski both scored in that Super Cup game but will miss the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg. For that reason, this game will look entirely different to the previous two games played this season.
The good news for the neutral is that not one of the last 13 games played between these two teams with Real Madrid playing as the home team has ended in a draw – six victories for Real Madrid and seven for Barcelona. The majority of those games were played during the Lionel Messi era, a player who defined the Clásico for almost two decades.
Recent Form
Xavi said the Almería game was the worst of the season and that he was disappointed after the game. He even went so far as to apologise to the fans for letting a ‘golden opportunity’ slip through their hands. They lost 1-0 thanks to El Bilal Touré goal and while Barça huffed and puffed to try and find an equaliser, it never felt like it was coming. Almería, truth be told, were comfortable. Xavi played Eric Garcia and Sergi Roberto while resting Jules Kounde and Ronald Araujo and it backfired spectacularly.
They have been knocked out of the Europa League and failed to capitalise on Real Madrid’s dropped points last Saturday night against Atlético Madrid in the last week. It’s unfair to say the wheels have come off at the club given their still commanding lead at the top of the league table but the potential is there for a crisis, there’s always potential for a crisis at Barcelona. A loss to Real Madrid would fix the spotlight squarely on Xavi after a rough week for the club.
Real Madrid just beat Liverpool in a 5-2 thriller in the Champions League last 16 first leg at Anfield. They followed that up with a relatively flat performance against Atlético Madrid, which saw Diego Simeone’s side take the lead before 18-year-old Álvaro Rodríguez equalise on his debut.
Ancelotti’s side have played a lot of football in the last two months and he has been rotating his team to keep them fresh. With so much success at the club in recent years, you can excuse the players for taking time to grow into a season. We are entering the endgame now and Real Madrid are still alive in three competitions. This is when regular seasons become seasons worthy of a special DVD. They are not playing particularly well but let’s suspend judgement on their season until it’s over.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction
Barcelona are struggling with injuries and are coming off elimination from Europe and a loss to relegation-embattled Almería. Real Madrid are just warming up for the business end of the season, which is that they live for, and the supercomputer knows what that means.
It gives Real Madrid a 47.2% chance of taking the lead back to the Camp Nou for the second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final. Ancelotti’s side are still in the running for a treble. The Champions League might be a tall order but it’s Real Madrid so nobody can write them off. A LaLiga comeback seems highly unlikely. The Copa del Rey could be Ancelotti’s only silverware this season.
Barcelona have been eliminated from Europe but have a seven-point lead in LaLiga. Xavi has already won the Spanish Super Cup but the fans are hungry for trophies. We only give them a 25.5% chance of success at the Santiago Bernabeu on Thursday night.
